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1 The G-Zero Wins
We’re entering a uniquely dangerous period of world history on par with the 1930s and the early Cold War.
2 Rule of Don
The erosion of independent checks on executive power and the rule of law will increase the extent to which the US policy landscape depends on the decisions of one powerful man.
3 US-China Breakdown
Trump’s return to office will unleash an unmanaged decoupling in the world’s most important geopolitical relationship.
4 Trumponomics
Donald Trump is about to inherit a robust US economy, but his policies will undermine its strength this year through higher inflation and reduced growth.
5 Russia Still Rogue
Russia will do more than any other country to subvert the global order in 2025.
6 Iran On the Ropes
The Middle East will remain a combustible environment in 2025, for one big reason: Iran hasn’t been this weak in decades.
7 Beggar Thy World
The US and China will export disruption to everyone else this year, short-circuiting the global economic recovery and accelerating geoeconomic fragmentation.
8 AI Unbound
As most governments opt for lighter-touch regulation and international cooperation falters, AI capabilities and risks will continue to grow unchecked.
9 Ungoverned Spaces
The deepening G-Zero will leave many people, places, and spaces thinly governed
and forgotten.
10 Mexican Standoff
Mexico will face formidable challenges this year in its relations with the US at a time of ongoing constitutional overhauls and fiscal stresses at home.
top risks 2024
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1 The United States Vs. Itself
The 2024 election will test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn’t experienced in 150 years.
2 Middle East on the Brink
The region is a tinderbox, and the number of players carrying matches makes the risk of escalation exceptionally high.
3 Partitioned Ukraine
Ukraine will be de facto partitioned this year, an unacceptable outcome for Ukraine and the West that will nevertheless become reality.
5 Axis of Rogues
Deeper alignment and mutual support between Russia, Iran, and North Korea will pose a growing threat to global stability.
6 China No Recovery
Any green shoots in the Chinese economy will only raise false hopes of a recovery as economic constraints and political dynamics prevent a durable growth rebound.
7 The Fight for Critical Minerals
The scramble for critical minerals will heat up as importers and exporters intensify their use of industrial policies and trade restrictions.
8 No Room for Error
The global inflation shock that began in 2021 will continue to exert a powerful economic and political drag in 2024.
9 El Niño is Back
A powerful El Niño climate pattern will bring extreme weather events that cause food insecurity, increase water stress, disrupt logistics, spread disease, and fuel migration and political instability.
10 Risky Business
Companies caught in the crossfire of US culture wars will see their decision-making autonomy limited and their cost of doing business rise.
top risks 2023
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1 Rogue Russia
A humiliated Russia will turn from global player into the world's most dangerous rogue state, posing a serious security threat to Europe, the United States, and beyond.
2 Maximum Xi
Xi Jinping emerged from China's 20th Party Congress in October 2022 with a grip on power unrivaled since Mao Zedong.
3 Weapons of Mass Disruption
New technologies will be a gift to autocrats bent on undermining democracy abroad and stifling dissent at home.
4 Inflation Shockwaves
Rising interest rates and global recession will raise the risk of emerging-market crises.
5 Iran In a Corner
The chance of regime collapse is low, but it's higher than at any point in the past four decades.
7 Arrested Global Development
Women and girls will suffer the most, losing hard-earned rights, opportunities, and security.
8 Divided States of America
There is a continuing risk of political violence in the US, even as some who participated in the Capitol riots go to prison.
9 Tik Tok Boom
Gen Z has both the ability and the motivation to organize online to reshape corporate and public policy, making life harder for multinationals everywhere and disrupting politics with the click of a button.
10 Water Stress
This year, water stress will become a global and systemic challenge...while governments will still treat it as a temporary crisis.
top risks 2022
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1 No Zero Covid
The initial success of China's zero-Covid policy and Xi's personal attachment to it makes it impossible to change course.
2 Technopolar World
The physical world is a mess because no countries are willing or able to provide global leadership; digital space is even more poorly governed.
3 US Midterms
This year's vote won’t provoke a crisis, but it represents a historic tipping point.
6 Iran
The Biden administration failed to prepare for the possibility that Iran would not be interested in reviving the nuclear deal.
7 Two Steps Greener, One Step Back
The energy transition is happening, but it won't be smooth.
10 Turkey
Erdogan's foreign policy positions will remain combative to distract voters from the economic crisis.
top risks 2023
Download the report here
1 Rogue Russia
A humiliated Russia will turn from global player into the world's most dangerous rogue state, posing a serious security threat to Europe, the United States, and beyond.
2 Maximum Xi
Xi Jinping emerged from China's 20th Party Congress in October 2022 with a grip on power unrivaled since Mao Zedong.
3 Weapons of Mass Disruption
New technologies will be a gift to autocrats bent on undermining democracy abroad and stifling dissent at home.
4 Inflation Shockwaves
Rising interest rates and global recession will raise the risk of emerging-market crises.
5 Iran In a Corner
The chance of regime collapse is low, but it's higher than at any point in the past four decades.
7 Arrested Global Development
Women and girls will suffer the most, losing hard-earned rights, opportunities, and security.
8 Divided States of America
There is a continuing risk of political violence in the US, even as some who participated in the Capitol riots go to prison.
9 Tik Tok Boom
Gen Z has both the ability and the motivation to organize online to reshape corporate and public policy, making life harder for multinationals everywhere and disrupting politics with the click of a button.
10 Water Stress
This year, water stress will become a global and systemic challenge...while governments will still treat it as a temporary crisis.
top risks 2022
Download the report here
1 No Zero Covid
The initial success of China's zero-Covid policy and Xi's personal attachment to it makes it impossible to change course.
2 Technopolar World
The physical world is a mess because no countries are willing or able to provide global leadership; digital space is even more poorly governed.
3 US Midterms
This year's vote won’t provoke a crisis, but it represents a historic tipping point.
6 Iran
The Biden administration failed to prepare for the possibility that Iran would not be interested in reviving the nuclear deal.
7 Two Steps Greener, One Step Back
The energy transition is happening, but it won't be smooth.
10 Turkey
Erdogan's foreign policy positions will remain combative to distract voters from the economic crisis.
